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Coronavirus in Africa: New variants are causing growing concern

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Experts believe the spread of new coronavirus variants in Africa has contributed to an increase in both cases and deaths across the continent.

At least a dozen countries have so far confirmed presence of the variant first detected in India late last year.

But there is concern that new variants can’t easily be tracked because the testing required to identify them isn’t widely available.

What’s the role of the Indian variant?

The new wave of infections in Africa is thought to be partly associated with the emergence of some variants that are more transmissible.

Uganda was the first country on the continent to confirm the presence of a variant first identified in India late last year.

This variant has now been reported in Kenya, Morocco, Algeria, South Africa, Botswana, Angola, DR Congo, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

It has been classified by the WHO as a “variant of global concern” with possible increased transmissibility.

Another variant of the virus which emerged in South Africa last year contributed to record case numbers in the southern African region, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

South Africa has had the most cases on the continent

This variant has also been recorded in more than 20 other African countries.

It’s highly likely to have reached other countries, but few are able to carry out the specialised genomic sequencing to detect coronavirus variants.

In Nigeria, scientists have also identified a new variant of the virus, although there is currently no evidence to indicate it is contributing to increased transmission.

Twenty countries have also reported the presence of a Covid-19 variant first identified in the UK.

The WHO and the African Centres for Disease Control launched a network of laboratories last year to try to boost the continent’s capacity to identify these variants.

It said the emergence of new, and more contagious variants “reinforced the need to step up genomic surveillance.”

This involves analysing the code of the virus to understand its genetic makeup.

However, a recent article in The Lancet pointed out that while efforts were underway to expand this type of work, there were issues around funding, as well as shortages of reagents and staff with the skills required.

What’s happening to case numbers?

Over the past month, new cases across the continent declined by 9%, according to the CDC.

New cases have been rising in countries such as South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria but dropping in DR Congo, Ethiopia and Kenya.

Click here to see the BBC interactive

“Africa is not out of the woods yet, and complacency is not an option at this time,” says the head of immunisation at the WHO Africa office, Richard Mihigo.

Most countries have launched Covid-19 immunisation campaigns, but there are still a few countries yet to roll out or even acquire vaccines.

Death rates have been rising

The number of Covid-related deaths rose by 4% in the past month, according to CDC data.

During the first stage of the pandemic, Africa’s overall fatality rate – the proportion of those with Covid who then die – was lower than elsewhere in the world.

There were a number of theories put forward as to why that might be the case, such as the relatively younger population, and possible cross-immunity from other coronaviruses.

Funeral workers prepare for a burial near Harare, Zimbabwe

But the Africa CDC has warned about rising fatality rates in the continent, saying that of the 55 countries they monitor, 21 are reporting fatality rates above the current global average of 2.2%.

The fatality rate for Africa has crept up since July last year when it was on average 2.1% – to 2.7% in April this year (measured over the duration of the pandemic).

A study published in The Lancet suggests hospital patients who are critically ill with Covid-19 in Africa are far more likely to die than in other parts of the world because of limited healthcare resources.

Researchers, who looked at patients in hospitals across 10 African countries, found that nearly half of those who needed intensive care died, whereas the global average was less than a third.

The global fatality rate has fallen since the start of the pandemic, which in itself would put more African countries above the global average.

And fatality rates are also affected by how much testing is done – a country with low levels of testing will show a higher death rate because many non-fatal Covid cases are going undetected.

Click here to see the BBC interactive

More importantly, data for deaths should be treated with caution, given the wide variations in how countries record them.

In South Africa, research into excess deaths – that’s the number of deaths in a certain period above what would normally be expected – shows that there were 153,668 more deaths between 6 May last year and 10 April this year.

The official death toll from Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic is just above 53,000.

And South Africa was just one of eight countries on the continent that the BBC found had adequate death registration systems.

So coronavirus deaths across Africa as a whole are likely to be under-recorded.

There are wide variations in testing rates and while some countries have reduced testing, others have maintained or even increased it at different points during the pandemic.

Culled from the BBC

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Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso agree to create a joint force to fight worsening violence

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BAMAKO, Mali (AP) — A joint security force announced by the juntas ruling Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to fight the worsening extremist violence in their Sahel region countries faces a number of challenges that cast doubt on its effectiveness, analysts said Thursday.

Niger’s top military chief, Brig. Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou said in a statement after meeting with his counterparts Wednesday that the joint force would be “operational as soon as possible to meet the security challenges in our area.”

The announcement is the latest in a series of actions taken by the three countries to strike a more independent path away from regional and international allies since the region experienced a string of coups — the most recent in Niger in July last year.

They have already formed a security alliance after severing military ties with neighbors and European nations such as France and turning to Russia — already present in parts of the Sahel — for support.

Barmou did not give details about the operation of the force, which he referred to as an “operational concept that will enable us to achieve our defence and security objectives.”

Although the militaries had promised to end the insurgencies in their territories after deposing their respective elected governments, conflict analysts say the violence has instead worsened under their regimes. They all share borders in the conflict-hit Sahel region and their security forces fighting jihadi violence are overstretched.

The effectiveness of their security alliance would depend not just on their resources but on external support, said Bedr Issa, an independent analyst who researches the conflict in the Sahel.

The three regimes are also “very fragile,” James Barnett, a researcher specializing in West Africa at the U.S.-based Hudson Institute, said, raising doubts about their capacity to work together.

“They’ve come to power through coups, they are likely facing a high risk of coups themselves, so it is hard to build a stable security framework when the foundation of each individual regime is shaky,” said Barnett.

—-

Associated Press writer Chinedu Asadu in Abuja, Nigeria contributed.

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Mexican Authorities say they saw a huge increase in migrants from Africa and Venezuela in 2023

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Mexican authorities say they saw a huge increase in the number of migrants from Africa and Venezuela entering the country in 2023.

Those migrants generally enter Mexico from Central America, and cross the country in a bid to reach the U.S. border.

Mexico’s Interior Department said year-end figures showed that nine times more migrants from Africa entered Mexico in 2023, with numbers rising from 6,672 in 2022, to 59,834 in 2023.

The report also showed the number of migrants from Venezuela more than doubled last year, rising from 96,197 in 2022 to 222,994 in 2023.

In part, that may reflect more rapid and more numerous movements of migrants through the jungle-clad Darien Gap that connects South America to Panama.

Smugglers are moving migrants more quickly through the dangerous route, which last year was traversed by over half a million migrants. Once in Panama, migrants make their way through Central America to Mexico.

Overall, the number of all irregular migrants found in Mexico in 2023 rose by 77%, going from 441,409 in 2022 to 782,176 last year.

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Nigeria vs South Africa: AFCON prediction, kick-off time, TV, and live stream

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A meeting of two imperious defences will decide the first entrant to the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations final when South Africa and Nigeria meet on Wednesday.

The Super Eagles have conceded just one goal at this AFCON and dispatched Angola in a tight game to qualify for the semi-finals.

But Bafana Bafana matched their run of four consecutive clean sheets as goalkeeper Ronwen Williams delivered the heroics in their penalty shootout win over Cape Verde.

Only once since their last Cup of Nations title, which came just over a decade ago, have Nigeria reached the last four – and they have lost five of their last six AFCON semi-finals.

South Africa’s wait stretches back even further, with no title since 1996 and this their first run to the last four since 2000.

Date, kick-off time and venue

Nigeria vs South Africa is scheduled for a 5pm GMT kick-off on Wednesday, February 7, 2024.

The match will take place at Stade de la Paix in Bouake.

Where to watch Nigeria vs South Africa

TV channel: In the UK, the game will be televised live on BBC Two, with coverage starting at 4.30pm GMT, as well as Sky Sports Main Event and Premier League.

Live stream: Sky subscribers can also catch the contest live online via the Sky Go app while the game will also be shown for free via the BBC Sport and iPlayer portals.

Live blog: You can follow all the action on matchday via Standard Sport’s live blog.

What we know

♦ Nigeria striker Victor Osimhen was taken off late on against Angola with an abdominal injury and he did not join the rest of the squad in flying out to Bouake on Monday evening.

A team statement assured that he could yet be released to travel on Tuesday if he passes medical checks.

Hugo Broos has a settled line-up for South Africa, with the defence entirely made up of Mamelodi Sundowns players.

However, after failing to score against Cape Verde he could tinker with the attack.

♦ Both teams have been outstanding defensively throughout the tournament and it feels as though a single goal will prove the difference in this game.

Head to head (h2h) history and results

Super Eagles captain William Troost-Ekong scored an 89th-minute winner when Nigeria knocked Bafana Bafana out of the 2019 Cup of Nations quarter-finals, which was these two sides’ last meeting.

Nigeria wins: 7

South Africa wins: 2

Draws: 5

Nigeria vs South Africa match odds

Nigeria to qualify: 1/2

South Africa to qualify: 7/1

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